* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/28/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 39 48 60 70 78 84 86 88 88 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 39 48 60 70 60 38 36 38 38 SHEAR (KTS) 8 7 7 8 10 6 7 5 8 8 9 7 6 SHEAR DIR 209 271 298 276 297 303 305 309 288 278 259 234 235 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 164 164 162 164 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 13 13 12 14 12 13 11 12 10 11 9 500-300 MB RH 64 62 60 57 56 54 54 50 54 47 52 49 54 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 3 3 0 1 0 0 -1 0 0 850 MB VORT 18 16 16 9 0 -5 22 15 24 9 20 29 45 LAND (KM) 237 257 320 311 300 330 230 102 -34 -133 44 145 153 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.7 18.2 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.3 19.6 19.8 19.9 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 78.9 80.0 81.1 82.0 82.9 84.2 85.3 86.5 87.8 89.3 91.0 92.7 94.4 HEAT CONTENT 101 130 132 123 122 116 130 126 9999 9999 31 35 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 517 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 39 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 30. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 20. 30. 38. 45. 51. 55. 59. 62. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 7. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 14. 23. 35. 45. 53. 59. 61. 63. 63. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/28/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.87 SST (C) : Value: 29.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.89 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.81 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.68 Scaled RI index= 4.94 Prob of RI= 34.8% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)