* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/28/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 39 37 32 27 23 21 20 20 19 18 V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 39 37 32 27 23 21 22 22 21 20 SHEAR (KTS) 15 18 16 14 18 29 33 29 33 30 29 27 28 SHEAR DIR 295 263 250 231 232 243 251 261 259 261 252 259 257 SST (C) 26.0 25.8 25.6 25.5 25.5 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.5 26.9 27.4 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 126 124 122 121 121 123 125 127 131 136 141 143 144 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -54.6 -54.9 -55.2 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 500-300 MB RH 31 34 34 34 31 20 22 25 33 42 43 46 45 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 4 2 10 13 21 10 9 3 4 0 0 850 MB VORT 7 7 1 11 11 -4 13 14 18 22 35 36 34 LAND (KM) 1202 1119 1038 939 843 661 460 251 45 41 180 244 341 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.2 19.5 19.6 19.8 19.8 19.7 19.8 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 143.8 144.5 145.1 146.0 146.8 148.5 150.4 152.4 154.5 156.5 158.5 160.4 162.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 739 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 17 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -6. -10. -15. -18. -21. -23. -25. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -9. -14. -19. -23. -25. -26. -26. -26. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -6. -8. -13. -18. -22. -24. -25. -25. -26. -27. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/28/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.06 SST (C) : Value: 25.7 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 77.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.41 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.41 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 37.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.15 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.28 Scaled RI index= 1.94 Prob of RI= 2.2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)