* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * FIFTEEN 09/28/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 44 51 56 58 57 52 48 43 36 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 44 51 56 58 57 52 48 43 36 SHEAR (KTS) 20 15 14 14 14 15 11 7 7 14 15 10 16 SHEAR DIR 72 63 54 56 49 39 26 6 289 285 246 231 196 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.0 27.2 26.5 25.7 25.3 24.9 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 162 160 158 155 147 139 131 123 119 115 111 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 -50.8 -51.2 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 11 10 9 8 6 5 4 3 4 3 500-300 MB RH 62 59 58 60 58 56 49 45 43 39 36 32 28 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 0 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 0 5 -5 850 MB VORT -20 -15 -6 0 4 9 -6 4 9 13 20 29 21 LAND (KM) 229 260 298 358 425 484 488 534 549 557 565 571 541 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.6 19.3 20.1 20.7 21.3 21.6 22.0 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 105.1 106.0 106.9 107.9 108.8 110.8 112.7 114.2 115.3 116.2 116.6 117.0 117.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 594 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 21 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 17. 21. 24. 24. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 23. 25. 25. 20. 16. 11. 6. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 14. 21. 26. 28. 27. 22. 18. 13. 6. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FIFTEEN 9/28/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.11 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.79 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 131.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.97 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.52 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 60.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.46 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.39 Scaled RI index= 4.03 Prob of RI= 28.1% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)