* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/28/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 39 49 59 70 76 82 83 85 86 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 39 49 59 70 48 34 37 39 39 SHEAR (KTS) 7 7 7 10 9 8 9 9 9 10 6 9 4 SHEAR DIR 274 297 274 297 317 275 318 261 294 253 266 226 249 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 164 164 164 165 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -52.8 -53.3 -52.8 -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 13 13 12 11 14 10 12 10 12 8 11 7 500-300 MB RH 62 60 57 55 55 53 51 51 52 49 50 52 52 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 3 3 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 15 14 8 0 -7 10 13 18 9 19 20 37 36 LAND (KM) 240 291 323 310 330 288 182 54 -94 -63 126 227 132 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.8 20.0 20.3 20.5 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 79.7 80.8 81.9 82.7 83.5 84.6 85.7 86.9 88.3 89.9 91.7 93.4 95.3 HEAT CONTENT 125 135 125 124 118 120 133 112 9999 9999 38 52 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 568 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 43 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 30. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 28. 37. 43. 48. 52. 56. 59. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 6. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 6. 4. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 10. 14. 24. 34. 45. 51. 57. 58. 60. 61. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/28/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.86 SST (C) : Value: 29.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.89 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.82 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.28 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.37 Scaled RI index= 4.92 Prob of RI= 34.1% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)