* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/28/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 41 39 36 33 30 28 28 28 26 23 V (KT) LAND 45 43 42 41 39 36 33 30 26 29 28 27 24 SHEAR (KTS) 21 19 17 23 28 29 31 26 32 30 27 28 30 SHEAR DIR 275 270 247 233 247 252 267 249 257 247 259 252 251 SST (C) 25.6 25.5 25.5 25.6 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.4 26.7 27.2 27.5 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 122 121 121 122 124 125 126 130 133 139 142 143 144 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.9 -54.1 -54.9 -54.7 -54.7 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 500-300 MB RH 29 33 35 33 26 19 23 32 35 40 38 39 45 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 15 3 6 3 -5 8 8 -2 -13 0 -8 1 850 MB VORT 13 9 22 32 18 16 18 23 5 25 11 14 13 LAND (KM) 1048 933 821 714 607 419 246 91 -20 155 226 333 484 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.4 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.8 20.0 20.0 20.0 19.9 19.9 20.0 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 145.0 146.0 147.0 148.0 149.0 150.8 152.5 154.1 155.7 157.7 160.1 162.2 164.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 778 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 12 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -17. -20. -23. -25. -28. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. -14. -16. -19. -21. -22. -23. -23. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -17. -17. -19. -22. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/28/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 21.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 25.6 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 77.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.40 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.18 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 17.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.71 Scaled RI index= 1.92 Prob of RI= 2.2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)