* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT MISSING * FIFTEEN 09/28/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 47 53 58 62 62 60 58 55 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 47 53 58 62 62 60 58 55 SHEAR (KTS) 19 14 15 13 13 13 7 4 5 7 11 10 9 SHEAR DIR 67 54 56 50 35 47 27 18 288 244 242 151 167 SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.4 27.7 27.2 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 161 160 160 161 161 160 156 151 144 139 137 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.2 -50.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.0 -51.9 -51.9 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 11 10 8 11 8 11 8 10 7 8 7 500-300 MB RH 62 60 57 58 61 55 56 51 45 48 43 41 30 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 4 1 0 0 2 0 -1 0 8 11 0 7 850 MB VORT -16 -14 -12 -8 -6 10 4 17 24 36 30 32 19 LAND (KM) 250 280 312 329 354 376 403 312 261 259 294 320 319 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.2 17.4 18.4 19.3 20.1 20.7 21.1 21.6 21.8 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 105.4 106.0 106.6 107.1 107.6 108.6 109.5 110.3 110.9 111.6 112.5 113.0 113.2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 584 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 9 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 18. 24. 28. 30. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 23. 28. 32. 32. 30. 28. 25. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 23. 28. 32. 32. 30. 28. 25. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FIFTEEN 9/28/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.17 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.79 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 131.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.96 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.51 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.0%)