* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/28/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 52 63 73 80 84 85 87 89 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 52 63 58 38 36 37 39 41 SHEAR (KTS) 9 8 10 9 7 7 3 6 8 9 8 7 4 SHEAR DIR 299 295 307 318 316 317 19 281 248 258 266 292 4 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 164 164 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 12 11 14 11 13 10 11 10 11 10 11 500-300 MB RH 63 58 59 58 54 57 52 53 49 51 49 48 45 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 4 3 3 1 0 0 -2 -2 7 3 6 850 MB VORT 24 18 15 9 5 34 36 39 31 31 28 43 23 LAND (KM) 300 284 255 258 287 224 105 -24 -149 14 178 294 215 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.1 17.6 18.0 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.8 20.3 20.8 21.1 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 80.5 81.6 82.7 83.4 84.1 85.4 86.5 87.7 89.1 90.6 92.1 93.5 95.0 HEAT CONTENT 117 125 116 113 111 125 128 9999 9999 40 48 56 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 580 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 48 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 16. 19. 23. 26. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 20. 30. 39. 46. 51. 56. 60. 63. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 5. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 16. 27. 38. 48. 55. 59. 60. 62. 64. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/28/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.84 SST (C) : Value: 29.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.89 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.81 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 84.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.81 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.39 Scaled RI index= 5.44 Prob of RI= 51.6% is 4.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)