* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/28/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 36 34 33 30 28 28 28 30 31 29 26 V (KT) LAND 40 38 36 34 33 30 28 28 28 30 31 29 26 SHEAR (KTS) 18 14 23 25 27 31 25 26 23 24 18 26 22 SHEAR DIR 268 241 233 242 245 252 258 252 259 254 254 250 260 SST (C) 25.6 25.5 25.5 25.7 25.7 26.0 26.4 27.0 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 122 121 121 123 123 126 130 137 140 138 137 137 136 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.8 -54.1 -55.1 -55.5 -55.7 -56.2 -56.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 8 9 8 500-300 MB RH 36 39 34 26 21 25 31 31 33 34 40 40 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) 11 10 1 8 15 0 14 0 2 1 -5 -5 -6 850 MB VORT 9 27 32 15 13 18 21 26 25 16 -3 -19 -38 LAND (KM) 980 876 775 649 524 287 80 65 134 247 469 675 808 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.7 19.3 19.6 19.9 20.0 20.2 20.4 20.7 21.9 23.7 25.1 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 145.6 146.5 147.4 148.6 149.8 152.1 154.4 157.0 159.9 162.2 164.0 165.5 165.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 743 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 28 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -16. -17. -19. -22. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -13. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -16. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 3. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -10. -9. -11. -14. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/28/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 21.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 25.6 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 82.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.45 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.22 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 4.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.70 Scaled RI index= 1.85 Prob of RI= 2.1% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)