* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * FIFTEEN 09/28/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 45 51 54 55 53 51 45 40 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 45 51 54 55 53 51 45 40 SHEAR (KTS) 15 13 11 11 11 10 5 4 9 13 11 18 14 SHEAR DIR 51 54 46 34 43 48 64 203 249 222 206 192 192 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.5 28.0 27.7 27.0 25.7 24.6 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 160 160 158 156 152 147 144 137 123 112 103 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.0 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.8 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 9 10 8 7 7 7 6 6 4 5 500-300 MB RH 58 55 57 56 52 49 44 44 40 40 34 28 22 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 -1 2 850 MB VORT -10 -4 -1 -4 8 12 6 15 19 20 40 34 25 LAND (KM) 285 313 355 393 432 426 362 347 344 334 264 239 238 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.9 18.2 19.1 20.1 20.8 21.2 21.9 23.0 24.0 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 106.3 107.0 107.7 108.4 109.1 110.6 111.8 112.5 112.8 113.3 114.0 114.5 114.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 593 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 6 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 11. 17. 22. 25. 26. 26. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 13. 18. 22. 23. 22. 19. 14. 9. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 21. 24. 25. 23. 21. 15. 10. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FIFTEEN 9/28/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.32 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.75 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 130.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.95 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.52 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 59.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.45 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.33 Scaled RI index= 3.94 Prob of RI= 26.5% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)