* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/29/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 38 43 54 66 76 83 89 92 93 95 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 38 43 54 66 76 55 36 36 37 39 SHEAR (KTS) 6 11 12 8 4 8 3 3 7 4 4 3 3 SHEAR DIR 329 325 341 7 327 10 214 11 212 287 205 348 11 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 164 164 164 164 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -53.3 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 12 15 14 11 13 11 12 9 12 8 11 500-300 MB RH 61 59 58 52 58 56 50 50 52 55 55 56 58 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 2 7 6 4 3 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 21 17 10 12 32 31 52 44 49 31 31 33 42 LAND (KM) 269 263 251 270 300 264 166 58 -70 -94 45 189 226 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.3 19.6 20.0 20.3 20.4 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 81.3 82.2 83.1 83.6 84.0 85.0 85.9 86.9 88.1 89.6 90.9 92.3 93.8 HEAT CONTENT 120 118 115 112 113 120 134 117 9999 9999 42 40 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 563 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 45 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 16. 19. 23. 26. 29. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 20. 31. 40. 48. 55. 61. 65. 69. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 6. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 8. 13. 18. 29. 41. 51. 58. 64. 67. 68. 70. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/29/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.86 SST (C) : Value: 29.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.89 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.81 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 87.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.84 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.82 Scaled RI index= 5.93 Prob of RI= 68.0% is 5.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)