* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/29/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 29 27 26 23 22 22 21 23 24 23 20 V (KT) LAND 35 32 29 27 26 23 22 22 21 23 24 23 20 SHEAR (KTS) 18 22 26 28 30 27 21 22 27 21 20 22 19 SHEAR DIR 250 237 242 244 245 262 240 239 232 240 238 256 243 SST (C) 25.6 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.4 26.6 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.0 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 122 121 122 123 124 126 130 132 135 135 136 137 136 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -53.3 -53.6 -54.5 -55.1 -55.7 -55.9 -56.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 8 500-300 MB RH 36 32 26 20 25 27 33 37 40 40 44 40 42 MO FLX (M/S/D) 10 -3 7 14 -14 23 15 0 -6 0 -15 -7 0 850 MB VORT 19 22 3 5 7 6 28 10 3 -9 -18 -34 -55 LAND (KM) 868 767 670 560 453 236 122 91 23 219 519 749 921 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.0 19.5 19.8 20.0 20.5 21.2 21.8 22.3 23.2 24.5 25.5 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 146.6 147.5 148.4 149.5 150.5 152.8 154.9 157.0 159.1 161.5 164.1 166.1 167.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 714 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 36 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -17. -19. -21. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. -6. -5. -3. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -9. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. -17. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 3. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -8. -9. -12. -13. -13. -14. -12. -11. -12. -15. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/29/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.31 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 24.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 25.6 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 87.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.51 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.22 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 1.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 10.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.79 Scaled RI index= 1.83 Prob of RI= 2.1% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)