* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * FIFTEEN 09/29/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 43 48 51 51 50 47 41 35 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 43 48 51 51 50 47 41 35 SHEAR (KTS) 14 12 11 10 11 10 8 2 5 6 15 12 17 SHEAR DIR 63 58 56 56 62 62 108 169 199 223 151 167 177 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.1 27.3 26.5 25.4 24.4 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 158 158 158 156 153 148 140 131 120 110 101 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.0 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -51.5 -51.0 -51.6 -50.7 -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 9 9 9 7 8 6 5 5 5 4 5 500-300 MB RH 54 58 58 51 50 51 51 44 37 32 24 17 14 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 0 0 1 2 3 1 0 0 0 -4 -2 2 850 MB VORT -7 0 0 16 20 12 22 17 37 49 56 34 30 LAND (KM) 333 359 396 428 461 419 362 332 336 283 209 191 90 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.9 18.3 19.2 20.0 20.8 21.6 22.5 23.6 24.8 26.2 LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.5 108.1 108.8 109.5 110.8 111.6 112.3 113.0 113.5 113.9 114.2 114.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 541 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 20 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 11. 17. 22. 25. 26. 25. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 11. 16. 19. 20. 18. 15. 10. 4. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 18. 21. 21. 20. 17. 11. 5. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FIFTEEN 9/29/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.35 SST (C) : Value: 29.1 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.71 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 128.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.93 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.51 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 47.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.28 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.3 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.33 Scaled RI index= 3.75 Prob of RI= 22.9% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.0%)