* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/29/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 38 43 54 65 75 82 88 91 93 94 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 38 43 54 65 75 59 37 36 38 39 SHEAR (KTS) 11 11 4 5 7 6 8 4 6 6 5 4 7 SHEAR DIR 331 354 31 259 316 6 329 330 292 280 320 27 341 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 164 164 164 162 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 14 13 12 13 11 12 10 11 10 11 10 500-300 MB RH 61 56 55 56 55 56 56 52 54 53 55 60 58 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 4 4 3 2 2 1 0 -1 -1 0 1 3 850 MB VORT 19 13 15 29 27 42 56 48 48 41 53 53 55 LAND (KM) 330 332 349 337 330 322 219 90 -58 -116 28 144 140 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.1 18.6 18.7 18.7 18.9 19.0 19.3 19.5 19.9 20.0 19.9 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 81.7 82.2 82.7 83.1 83.5 84.4 85.4 86.6 88.0 89.4 90.8 92.3 93.8 HEAT CONTENT 124 127 132 126 118 117 132 123 9999 9999 37 31 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 617 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 70 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 16. 19. 23. 26. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 16. 16. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 21. 31. 40. 47. 54. 59. 65. 68. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 8. 13. 18. 29. 40. 50. 57. 63. 66. 68. 69. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/29/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.87 SST (C) : Value: 29.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.90 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.81 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.30 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.68 Scaled RI index= 5.28 Prob of RI= 46.0% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)