* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/29/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 30 29 27 26 26 26 26 27 29 29 27 V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 29 27 26 26 23 26 27 29 29 27 SHEAR (KTS) 23 26 26 27 28 24 23 24 28 21 19 14 12 SHEAR DIR 243 247 245 244 251 250 244 240 247 258 266 294 307 SST (C) 25.7 25.8 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.3 26.7 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 125 125 126 129 133 136 136 137 138 139 139 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.9 -54.6 -55.4 -55.6 -56.2 -56.4 -56.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 500-300 MB RH 31 26 24 26 26 31 33 37 39 41 40 44 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) -7 7 13 6 3 3 16 5 -2 -3 -4 -12 -17 850 MB VORT 7 -9 -7 -2 11 10 22 14 1 -18 -25 -47 -37 LAND (KM) 785 676 568 456 345 109 14 -6 70 363 717 975 1194 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.8 20.6 21.5 22.3 23.2 24.2 25.0 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 147.4 148.4 149.4 150.5 151.5 153.8 156.1 158.2 160.4 163.1 166.4 168.8 170.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 732 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 23 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -16. -17. -18. -19. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -6. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -6. -8. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/29/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 26.1 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 25.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 89.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.18 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 12.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.48 Scaled RI index= 1.66 Prob of RI= 1.9% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)