* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * OTIS 09/29/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 42 45 51 56 59 58 55 49 42 35 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 42 45 51 56 59 58 55 49 42 32 SHEAR (KTS) 14 13 13 14 13 8 4 6 9 11 17 15 17 SHEAR DIR 48 45 41 52 52 59 152 237 215 189 179 201 204 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.5 27.7 26.7 25.8 24.8 24.0 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 158 158 158 156 152 144 133 124 114 105 94 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 -51.8 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 500-300 MB RH 54 56 52 54 53 47 47 40 33 29 23 20 13 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 -2 1 4 0 0 3 2 1 0 -2 0 4 850 MB VORT -6 -8 1 18 13 13 21 23 44 42 39 29 53 LAND (KM) 336 370 408 436 455 367 310 285 254 180 163 107 -5 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.4 18.8 19.7 20.6 21.6 22.6 23.6 24.6 25.9 27.3 LONG(DEG W) 107.3 108.0 108.6 109.3 109.9 110.9 111.7 112.4 113.0 113.5 113.9 114.1 114.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 602 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 19 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 16. 20. 22. 22. 21. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 16. 21. 24. 23. 19. 13. 7. 0. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 10. 16. 21. 24. 23. 20. 14. 7. 0. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OTIS 9/29/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.24 SST (C) : Value: 29.1 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.72 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 123.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.89 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.51 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.47 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.23 Scaled RI index= 3.85 Prob of RI= 24.7% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)