* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/29/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 52 63 73 80 85 88 91 92 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 52 63 46 33 37 39 43 44 SHEAR (KTS) 10 6 2 5 8 3 5 8 8 9 4 5 5 SHEAR DIR 2 18 333 328 4 194 309 242 289 251 302 265 344 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 164 164 164 165 165 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -53.4 -52.9 -53.4 -52.9 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 14 14 12 11 13 10 12 9 12 8 12 8 500-300 MB RH 62 59 57 59 57 54 53 52 54 57 57 55 55 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 3 3 2 3 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 2 850 MB VORT 12 10 25 33 28 46 40 44 37 40 41 51 44 LAND (KM) 300 300 319 332 303 190 61 -76 -89 67 201 195 40 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.2 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.5 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.4 20.4 20.3 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 82.3 82.9 83.5 84.1 84.6 85.6 86.8 88.1 89.6 91.1 92.7 94.4 96.2 HEAT CONTENT 121 122 117 116 120 133 112 9999 9999 43 43 34 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 594 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 58 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 15. 18. 23. 25. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 21. 31. 41. 47. 54. 59. 64. 67. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 16. 27. 38. 48. 55. 60. 63. 66. 67. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/29/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.91 SST (C) : Value: 29.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.90 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.81 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.39 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.42 Scaled RI index= 5.13 Prob of RI= 41.2% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)