* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/29/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 28 29 31 33 35 38 39 39 37 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 28 26 31 32 34 37 38 39 36 SHEAR (KTS) 27 29 31 33 27 25 22 19 16 16 18 11 14 SHEAR DIR 251 247 248 257 268 255 258 268 291 302 330 330 319 SST (C) 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.7 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 126 126 127 133 138 139 139 140 141 142 143 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -53.3 -54.2 -54.9 -55.3 -56.1 -56.3 -56.7 -56.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 500-300 MB RH 29 26 27 27 27 29 32 34 33 38 39 38 37 MO FLX (M/S/D) 15 8 1 2 29 11 -9 6 -16 -21 -15 -4 -1 850 MB VORT -2 -7 -5 3 0 12 7 1 -12 -14 -29 -33 -24 LAND (KM) 643 542 441 319 200 -3 88 149 570 895 1152 1331 1578 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.5 19.7 20.0 20.5 21.4 22.7 23.4 24.3 25.2 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 148.7 149.7 150.6 151.8 152.9 155.3 157.7 161.1 165.3 168.4 170.8 172.4 174.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 759 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 39 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 3. 4. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 8. 7. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 7. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/29/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 29.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 26.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 95.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.59 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.04 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 6.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.99 Scaled RI index= 2.09 Prob of RI= 2.4% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)