* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * OTIS 09/29/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 47 50 53 59 62 63 61 57 51 44 36 V (KT) LAND 40 44 47 50 53 59 62 63 61 57 51 44 33 SHEAR (KTS) 13 12 15 11 10 4 10 5 6 11 15 14 17 SHEAR DIR 48 38 39 33 22 26 281 249 250 170 205 186 231 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.2 27.6 27.0 25.9 24.8 23.6 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 160 158 157 154 149 143 137 125 114 101 114 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -52.0 -51.3 -51.3 -50.6 -51.3 -51.2 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 7 8 7 7 6 6 4 5 2 500-300 MB RH 58 53 54 54 51 48 47 44 37 40 30 23 16 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 0 1 -2 0 2 1 5 5 3 1 6 6 850 MB VORT 1 11 11 7 5 21 27 39 31 47 37 45 64 LAND (KM) 353 389 426 427 381 328 287 267 228 135 134 10 -9 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.2 18.6 19.1 19.5 20.2 21.1 21.9 22.7 23.9 25.5 26.9 28.4 LONG(DEG W) 107.9 108.6 109.3 109.9 110.5 111.3 112.0 112.4 112.7 113.2 113.7 114.0 113.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 558 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 25 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 15. 18. 19. 19. 17. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 19. 23. 24. 22. 18. 12. 5. -3. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 10. 13. 19. 22. 23. 21. 17. 11. 4. -4. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OTIS 9/29/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.94 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.33 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.72 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 119.1 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.84 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.44 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 70.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.59 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.23 Scaled RI index= 4.09 Prob of RI= 29.2% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.0%)