* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/29/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 41 51 62 71 76 81 86 91 93 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 41 51 36 30 36 41 46 51 35 SHEAR (KTS) 9 6 4 5 2 5 4 8 6 4 3 2 4 SHEAR DIR 338 337 356 14 66 282 237 251 218 238 256 356 104 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 164 164 164 164 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 9 12 10 11 10 10 10 11 11 11 500-300 MB RH 59 61 63 63 56 56 54 57 53 55 54 54 52 MO FLX (M/S/D) 7 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 18 38 42 44 43 49 41 47 52 58 56 62 35 LAND (KM) 252 241 252 267 184 32 -121 -43 128 233 185 17 -146 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.4 18.6 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.4 20.6 20.6 20.5 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 82.9 83.6 84.3 85.1 85.8 87.2 88.6 90.1 91.7 93.2 94.9 96.7 98.4 HEAT CONTENT 116 109 103 112 122 107 9999 9999 42 45 47 72 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 633 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 57 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 15. 16. 18. 19. 21. 21. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 22. 31. 40. 47. 53. 59. 65. 68. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 10. 16. 26. 37. 46. 51. 56. 61. 66. 68. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/29/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.93 SST (C) : Value: 29.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.88 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.85 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.34 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.29 Scaled RI index= 5.00 Prob of RI= 36.8% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)