* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/29/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 28 28 28 30 33 36 38 41 43 43 41 V (KT) LAND 30 28 28 28 28 30 33 36 38 41 43 43 41 SHEAR (KTS) 29 31 33 27 23 23 17 19 14 16 13 11 8 SHEAR DIR 248 248 257 268 263 255 264 267 277 302 352 338 352 SST (C) 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.4 26.8 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 126 127 130 135 138 137 138 139 139 137 132 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.7 -54.5 -54.9 -55.6 -56.4 -56.7 -56.8 -57.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 8 9 9 8 8 8 500-300 MB RH 25 27 27 27 28 31 32 34 33 37 39 37 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) 10 -4 2 26 18 3 4 -3 -12 -21 -20 -1 6 850 MB VORT -7 -5 3 0 2 8 4 -15 -20 -19 -33 -47 -50 LAND (KM) 517 414 314 194 85 23 67 248 567 863 1121 1344 1478 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.3 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.5 21.3 22.2 23.1 24.2 25.6 26.8 28.2 LONG(DEG W) 149.9 150.9 151.8 153.0 154.1 156.6 159.3 162.2 165.2 167.9 170.1 172.0 172.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 755 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 10 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 8. 7. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 13. 11. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/29/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 28.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 26.1 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 97.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.61 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.01 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 5.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 2.09 Prob of RI= 2.4% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)