* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * OTIS 09/29/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 56 59 64 65 64 62 57 49 40 31 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 56 59 64 65 64 62 57 49 41 31 SHEAR (KTS) 14 13 11 7 4 4 8 6 1 9 14 21 26 SHEAR DIR 40 37 28 27 36 294 309 257 177 181 205 216 233 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.2 27.7 27.2 26.7 25.6 23.7 22.1 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 157 156 154 149 144 139 133 122 102 86 131 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 7 8 6 7 6 6 5 4 2 2 500-300 MB RH 49 52 50 48 46 49 43 38 34 34 27 24 22 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 0 -2 -2 -1 -3 0 0 0 0 9 7 850 MB VORT 13 11 0 2 10 24 27 23 20 13 26 57 62 LAND (KM) 405 440 391 362 343 326 315 305 268 164 133 7 -2 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.7 21.4 21.9 22.5 23.8 25.8 27.8 29.7 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.7 110.4 110.9 111.4 112.1 112.6 112.9 113.1 113.5 114.4 114.6 114.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 497 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 35 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 15. 15. 14. 12. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 19. 20. 20. 18. 13. 5. -4. -13. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 11. 14. 19. 20. 19. 17. 12. 4. -5. -14. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OTIS 9/29/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.94 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.48 SST (C) : Value: 29.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.68 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 112.5 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.77 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.35 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 70.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.59 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.3 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.37 Scaled RI index= 4.19 Prob of RI= 31.0% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.0%)