* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/30/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 39 49 59 69 73 78 82 84 84 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 39 49 35 30 37 41 45 48 48 SHEAR (KTS) 5 6 5 1 5 5 9 6 10 5 4 11 9 SHEAR DIR 298 320 339 338 234 284 222 239 225 293 277 343 338 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 164 164 164 164 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.3 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -52.7 -53.4 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 14 12 11 14 13 10 12 9 11 8 11 8 12 500-300 MB RH 62 58 62 57 54 54 52 55 53 53 55 51 49 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 2 2 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 3 0 1 0 850 MB VORT 25 27 29 38 51 31 42 36 34 33 38 18 20 LAND (KM) 295 288 294 261 190 36 -128 -29 106 244 328 209 93 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.4 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.4 20.0 20.6 21.2 21.5 21.7 21.9 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 83.0 83.7 84.4 85.1 85.7 87.1 88.6 90.1 91.3 92.6 94.0 95.2 96.4 HEAT CONTENT 121 113 113 120 125 106 9999 9999 48 57 59 62 73 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 638 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 34 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 19. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 20. 30. 38. 44. 50. 54. 57. 59. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 14. 24. 34. 44. 48. 53. 57. 59. 59. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/30/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.95 SST (C) : Value: 29.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.89 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.86 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.11 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.32 Scaled RI index= 4.83 Prob of RI= 30.7% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)