* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * OTIS 09/30/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 65 69 73 75 75 70 63 55 45 35 28 V (KT) LAND 55 61 65 69 73 75 75 70 63 55 41 34 31 SHEAR (KTS) 12 9 7 5 1 10 6 13 8 14 20 26 27 SHEAR DIR 41 43 35 19 332 294 267 262 194 220 216 245 252 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.1 27.3 26.6 25.9 25.1 23.3 25.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 158 156 153 148 140 132 125 117 98 122 164 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.3 -51.7 -51.5 -51.1 -51.2 -50.8 -51.0 -50.7 -51.1 -51.2 -51.7 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 7 7 8 6 7 4 6 3 3 0 2 500-300 MB RH 52 53 49 42 42 40 40 35 34 31 27 20 20 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -2 0 0 0 -4 -3 1 4 0 0 2 6 850 MB VORT 16 3 6 8 10 21 31 18 32 31 44 65 62 LAND (KM) 371 327 293 266 250 236 237 174 92 100 -28 -34 27 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.0 20.3 20.7 21.0 21.7 22.4 23.3 24.4 25.8 27.4 29.1 31.0 LONG(DEG W) 109.4 110.0 110.5 110.9 111.3 111.9 112.5 112.8 113.1 113.5 114.1 114.1 113.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 613 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 35 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 8. 6. 3. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 1. -3. -7. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -12. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. 19. 15. 9. 1. -9. -19. -26. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 10. 15. 18. 20. 20. 15. 8. 0. -10. -20. -27. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OTIS 9/30/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.68 SST (C) : Value: 29.1 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.69 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 103.1 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.67 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.26 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.88 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.4 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.54 Scaled RI index= 4.63 Prob of RI= 44.4% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.0%)