* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * INVEST 09/30/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 47 55 57 56 54 51 47 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 47 55 57 56 54 51 47 SHEAR (KTS) 7 13 15 14 10 7 3 5 14 21 26 33 42 SHEAR DIR 283 297 295 306 301 290 233 215 200 213 233 232 235 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.8 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 152 152 151 146 139 133 129 127 127 127 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.3 -53.7 -54.0 -53.4 -54.2 -53.7 -54.3 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 500-300 MB RH 37 42 42 44 45 45 49 47 49 43 43 45 49 MO FLX (M/S/D) -7 -6 -5 -3 -4 -2 0 2 0 3 1 4 0 850 MB VORT 39 43 38 39 37 57 73 62 49 30 -1 -24 -16 LAND (KM) 1655 1665 1674 1695 1717 1795 1826 1899 1975 2003 2063 2104 2158 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.9 12.2 12.7 13.7 15.0 16.5 17.9 19.1 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 32.5 32.6 32.7 32.9 33.1 33.9 34.8 35.9 37.0 38.0 38.7 39.6 40.3 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 15 14 14 15 16 12 9 8 9 10 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 788 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 2 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 4. 1. -4. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 22. 30. 32. 31. 29. 26. 22. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 22. 30. 32. 31. 29. 26. 22. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/30/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.76 SST (C) : Value: 28.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.73 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 128.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.92 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.59 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)