* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/30/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 50 59 66 70 74 74 75 75 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 50 59 66 70 74 74 75 75 SHEAR (KTS) 11 12 7 10 13 8 11 8 14 12 17 12 16 SHEAR DIR 307 336 328 282 311 308 283 289 288 290 310 328 325 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.7 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 162 164 164 164 164 165 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 13 13 11 12 10 11 10 10 9 10 10 500-300 MB RH 63 63 58 60 60 57 57 56 56 52 50 46 43 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 3 3 2 4 1 1 2 0 0 -3 3 -1 850 MB VORT 21 19 24 42 40 40 43 47 41 41 34 30 13 LAND (KM) 380 369 310 249 200 129 22 128 247 347 440 411 337 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.9 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.9 21.7 22.7 23.5 24.1 24.6 25.0 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 82.0 82.6 83.1 83.7 84.3 85.6 87.0 88.4 89.6 90.9 92.1 93.2 93.9 HEAT CONTENT 138 139 133 129 131 104 81 43 39 14 31 44 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 355/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 556 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 48 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 14. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 27. 34. 40. 46. 48. 50. 50. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 16. 25. 34. 41. 45. 49. 49. 50. 50. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/30/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.80 SST (C) : Value: 29.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.92 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 84.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.88 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 65.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.58 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.32 Scaled RI index= 5.21 Prob of RI= 43.8% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)