* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/30/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 23 23 24 27 30 31 31 32 32 29 24 V (KT) LAND 25 23 23 23 24 27 30 31 31 32 32 29 24 SHEAR (KTS) 35 31 30 28 27 29 33 32 34 31 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 262 266 258 259 248 244 244 243 239 246 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.7 26.9 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 131 133 136 140 142 143 143 143 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -54.0 -54.4 -54.9 -55.6 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 26 28 34 35 39 43 43 50 54 53 N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 17 18 14 18 2 -8 4 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT -8 -16 -5 9 16 16 3 0 5 2 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 285 181 80 17 23 196 241 255 280 340 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.3 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.4 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 152.1 153.1 154.1 155.1 156.1 157.9 159.5 160.7 161.6 162.6 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 708 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -39 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -11. -17. -21. -23. -26. -29. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 10. 8. 6. 5. 5. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 7. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -2. -2. -1. 2. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 4. -1. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/30/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 30.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 26.5 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 106.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.70 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.10 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 5.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 2.28 Prob of RI= 2.6% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)