* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * OTIS 09/30/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 68 70 72 72 70 65 57 49 41 32 26 V (KT) LAND 60 64 68 70 72 72 70 65 57 49 37 32 30 SHEAR (KTS) 13 11 6 4 7 7 9 9 14 13 17 20 28 SHEAR DIR 24 23 355 322 288 294 248 224 220 210 214 237 248 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.5 26.9 25.8 24.9 24.0 23.9 25.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 158 154 151 148 142 136 124 115 105 104 118 160 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.8 -52.0 -52.6 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 6 6 5 6 5 4 3 3 0 500-300 MB RH 53 50 45 45 46 42 36 30 29 26 21 15 12 MO FLX (M/S/D) -4 -2 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 3 -1 1 4 8 0 850 MB VORT 3 2 0 3 15 20 34 41 27 26 39 44 53 LAND (KM) 277 233 205 196 200 207 189 127 144 73 -4 -14 70 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.9 21.3 21.7 22.0 22.5 23.1 24.0 25.1 26.2 27.0 28.6 30.6 LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.5 111.0 111.4 111.7 112.2 112.6 113.2 113.7 114.0 113.9 113.9 114.0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 606 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 10 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. -1. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -3. -7. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 13. 14. 13. 8. 0. -9. -17. -26. -33. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 10. 12. 12. 10. 5. -3. -11. -19. -28. -34. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OTIS 9/30/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.58 SST (C) : Value: 28.7 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.59 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 94.5 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.58 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.26 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 85.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.80 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.3 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.46 Scaled RI index= 4.18 Prob of RI= 30.9% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.0%)