* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/30/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 46 54 60 61 60 58 57 56 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 46 54 60 61 60 58 57 56 SHEAR (KTS) 12 14 11 9 6 1 2 8 15 19 20 23 26 SHEAR DIR 294 293 306 304 314 260 175 166 176 204 220 209 214 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 152 152 151 148 143 139 135 133 133 135 137 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.3 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 500-300 MB RH 42 42 45 47 46 46 54 45 46 43 41 38 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) -5 -5 -4 -5 -3 0 3 0 4 -1 2 0 12 850 MB VORT 43 38 39 40 46 61 69 60 43 30 6 35 48 LAND (KM) 1698 1724 1751 1779 1769 1752 1770 1833 1814 1825 1823 1782 1726 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.9 11.9 12.1 12.6 13.5 14.5 15.6 16.3 16.7 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 32.9 33.2 33.4 33.8 34.1 35.1 36.3 37.5 38.5 39.4 40.2 41.3 42.4 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 14 15 16 19 16 13 11 12 18 26 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 756 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 26 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 21. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 10. 10. 7. 5. 2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 26. 33. 36. 35. 34. 34. 32. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 13. 21. 29. 35. 36. 35. 33. 32. 31. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/30/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.80 SST (C) : Value: 28.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.72 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 127.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.92 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.60 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.86 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.49 Scaled RI index= 5.27 Prob of RI= 45.8% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)