* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/30/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 34 43 52 60 66 72 75 79 79 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 34 35 35 43 49 54 58 61 62 SHEAR (KTS) 11 6 5 8 7 7 5 9 5 6 12 7 10 SHEAR DIR 347 14 274 292 318 244 265 223 323 281 332 323 330 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 164 162 164 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.2 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -52.7 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 13 12 11 10 12 9 11 8 11 8 12 10 500-300 MB RH 65 60 61 61 60 59 60 59 57 53 49 48 46 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -3 850 MB VORT 31 31 42 42 36 45 45 42 41 37 24 22 6 LAND (KM) 311 328 288 211 134 -29 6 138 239 347 387 275 173 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.8 20.6 21.4 22.3 22.9 23.2 23.3 23.4 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 83.4 84.1 84.7 85.4 86.1 87.5 89.0 90.3 91.4 92.7 93.9 95.1 96.1 HEAT CONTENT 118 117 124 125 117 9999 38 44 52 51 55 57 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 620 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 31 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 8. 13. 17. 21. 25. 28. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 19. 28. 37. 44. 51. 54. 58. 60. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 14. 23. 32. 40. 46. 52. 55. 59. 59. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/30/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.88 SST (C) : Value: 29.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.89 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 145.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.86 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.16 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.33 Scaled RI index= 4.83 Prob of RI= 30.7% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)