* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/30/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 23 23 24 27 30 31 33 35 35 33 28 V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 24 25 28 30 31 33 35 35 33 28 SHEAR (KTS) 32 33 27 24 28 32 34 33 28 32 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 265 267 279 263 262 262 275 279 279 262 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 26.3 26.5 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 131 135 137 140 143 145 146 146 147 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -53.6 -53.7 -54.2 -54.9 -55.7 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 27 31 31 36 36 37 33 38 36 36 N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 14 14 -3 0 -12 -11 -4 -9 -5 1 N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT -11 -6 4 17 23 12 -7 -7 -14 1 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 158 46 -10 78 190 314 393 486 544 618 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.3 19.2 19.1 18.9 18.9 18.9 19.0 19.2 19.3 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 153.3 154.5 155.6 156.7 157.7 159.8 161.7 163.2 164.1 165.0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 735 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -12 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -11. -16. -20. -22. -25. -27. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 3. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -2. -2. -1. 2. 5. 6. 8. 10. 10. 8. 3. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/30/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 28.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 26.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.02 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 109.3 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.73 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.05 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 3.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.64 Scaled RI index= 1.92 Prob of RI= 2.2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)