* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * OTIS 09/30/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 80 82 82 80 73 65 56 47 37 30 24 V (KT) LAND 70 75 80 82 82 80 73 65 56 47 38 34 28 SHEAR (KTS) 8 5 4 8 10 12 13 10 9 13 19 20 27 SHEAR DIR 29 333 305 277 285 251 258 214 221 188 237 245 255 SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.2 26.3 25.5 24.8 24.1 23.7 27.3 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 155 151 148 145 139 129 121 114 106 102 140 164 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.1 -51.3 -51.6 -50.8 -51.4 -51.4 -51.9 -51.9 -52.5 -53.2 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 6 5 6 4 6 4 4 2 3 0 500-300 MB RH 52 44 46 43 40 38 33 30 25 21 14 11 10 MO FLX (M/S/D) -3 -4 -2 -1 0 0 5 2 0 -1 -2 3 0 850 MB VORT 8 5 7 16 13 30 29 32 28 41 59 60 40 LAND (KM) 238 195 173 175 179 145 67 106 123 31 9 11 41 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.4 21.9 22.2 22.5 23.3 24.4 25.1 25.6 26.6 28.2 29.7 31.0 LONG(DEG W) 110.5 110.9 111.3 111.6 111.8 112.2 112.8 113.3 113.7 113.9 114.1 114.1 113.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 564 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -11 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -6. -9. -13. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -9. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 9. 9. 7. 1. -6. -15. -23. -32. -40. -46. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 12. 12. 10. 3. -5. -14. -23. -33. -40. -46. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OTIS 9/30/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.67 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.51 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 81.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.45 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.19 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.93 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 11.1 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.77 Scaled RI index= 4.43 Prob of RI= 36.0% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.0%)