* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/30/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 44 51 56 57 58 59 60 61 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 44 51 56 57 58 59 60 61 SHEAR (KTS) 13 11 8 7 4 3 4 13 17 17 18 15 15 SHEAR DIR 297 311 309 311 312 210 162 149 163 189 194 188 175 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 152 151 149 145 142 138 135 134 134 135 137 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.3 -53.9 -53.3 -53.9 -53.1 -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 500-300 MB RH 44 47 49 47 48 50 49 50 48 49 42 43 36 MO FLX (M/S/D) -4 -2 -2 -1 0 0 1 0 1 3 1 2 0 850 MB VORT 42 41 35 38 41 63 74 49 61 59 72 79 73 LAND (KM) 1698 1739 1780 1775 1767 1765 1799 1826 1821 1818 1787 1757 1713 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.9 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.4 13.0 13.8 14.7 15.2 15.4 15.4 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 32.9 33.3 33.7 34.2 34.7 35.7 36.9 37.8 38.6 39.1 39.7 40.1 40.7 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 15 17 18 17 14 13 11 12 15 18 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 691 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 44 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 20. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 9. 7. 4. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 23. 29. 32. 33. 35. 37. 38. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 26. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. 36. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/30/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.84 SST (C) : Value: 28.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.71 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 126.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.91 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.57 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.86 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.62 Scaled RI index= 5.22 Prob of RI= 44.2% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)