* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/30/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 28 32 41 49 58 64 71 76 82 85 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 28 28 27 37 46 52 59 64 42 32 SHEAR (KTS) 11 7 7 5 4 7 3 3 3 8 6 1 3 SHEAR DIR 342 306 297 295 284 274 255 294 336 343 44 11 119 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.7 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 164 162 164 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 10 9 11 9 10 9 10 10 12 11 12 500-300 MB RH 62 63 62 62 62 59 55 56 51 46 39 45 41 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 0 850 MB VORT 48 61 64 63 68 62 57 61 41 37 30 51 28 LAND (KM) 322 268 180 86 -7 -27 129 296 350 214 40 -122 -302 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.9 20.2 21.0 21.9 22.6 23.1 23.3 23.2 23.1 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 84.1 84.9 85.7 86.6 87.4 89.3 91.1 92.6 94.2 95.7 97.4 99.0 100.8 HEAT CONTENT 116 119 117 110 84 9999 48 54 57 60 75 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 642 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 48 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 0. 3. 8. 13. 17. 22. 25. 29. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 15. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 8. 16. 25. 35. 42. 50. 55. 62. 66. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 8. 12. 21. 29. 38. 44. 51. 56. 62. 65. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/30/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.89 SST (C) : Value: 29.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.88 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 144.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.85 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.43 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.33 Scaled RI index= 4.91 Prob of RI= 33.9% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)