* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/30/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 25 26 29 32 33 33 34 33 30 25 V (KT) LAND 25 22 25 26 27 30 32 33 34 34 34 31 26 SHEAR (KTS) 27 24 25 27 28 34 30 30 27 31 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 264 267 258 259 255 264 267 272 262 262 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 26.5 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 133 136 138 140 141 141 140 140 140 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.5 -53.9 -54.6 -55.9 -56.5 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 26 28 33 35 36 35 33 35 34 33 N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 12 -1 -8 -9 -3 -1 -12 -3 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT -10 2 16 22 19 -5 -18 -22 -24 -11 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 66 -6 27 116 166 190 219 273 341 463 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.4 19.5 19.7 19.8 20.2 20.6 21.2 21.7 22.0 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 154.2 155.2 156.2 157.2 158.2 159.9 161.3 162.3 163.1 164.3 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 723 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -26 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 22. 23. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -4. -9. -14. -19. -21. -24. -27. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 5. 1. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/30/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 26.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 26.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.06 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 110.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.75 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 65.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 17.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.3 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.24 Scaled RI index= 1.68 Prob of RI= 1.9% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)