* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * OTIS 09/30/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 80 80 79 73 66 57 49 41 36 30 22 V (KT) LAND 75 78 80 80 79 73 66 57 49 35 34 28 27 SHEAR (KTS) 4 3 2 6 7 14 10 16 12 16 16 24 28 SHEAR DIR 339 358 275 282 247 230 192 188 175 209 219 233 250 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.6 26.5 26.0 25.5 25.1 25.5 28.9 29.5 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 149 147 143 131 126 121 117 121 156 163 120 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 -50.8 -51.1 -51.0 -51.5 -51.5 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 6 4 5 4 4 3 4 2 4 500-300 MB RH 49 49 46 40 39 32 30 25 17 13 12 10 12 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 2 0 -1 0 -1 -2 4 8 5 2 5 850 MB VORT 13 11 13 18 29 45 49 37 20 41 36 53 3 LAND (KM) 205 189 183 177 162 107 71 118 44 -66 37 -44 -203 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.7 22.0 22.4 22.8 23.9 24.7 25.5 26.3 27.6 29.2 30.7 32.1 LONG(DEG W) 111.0 111.3 111.5 111.7 111.9 112.7 113.0 113.3 113.5 113.5 113.2 112.5 111.2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 644 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 4 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -6. -10. -13. -13. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -6. -12. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 6. 2. -5. -14. -22. -30. -36. -42. -51. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 5. 4. -2. -9. -18. -26. -34. -39. -45. -53. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OTIS 9/30/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.94 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.83 SST (C) : Value: 28.2 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.44 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 74.1 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.37 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.14 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 78.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.70 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.53 Scaled RI index= 3.95 Prob of RI= 26.6% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)