* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NINETEEN 10/01/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 44 50 55 57 54 49 44 39 34 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 44 50 55 57 54 49 44 39 34 SHEAR (KTS) 11 11 10 5 4 12 12 22 33 38 47 49 52 SHEAR DIR 305 319 329 329 291 268 240 237 234 244 242 245 246 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 27.8 27.2 26.7 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.4 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 149 148 139 132 126 123 123 124 123 122 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.4 -54.7 -55.3 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 7 6 500-300 MB RH 46 45 43 42 44 46 45 49 52 49 51 48 48 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 -5 -7 -1 0 23 850 MB VORT 35 30 38 50 69 82 66 45 19 -6 -4 -14 -8 LAND (KM) 1699 1709 1718 1746 1774 1863 1932 2006 2056 2053 2055 2069 2089 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.5 12.7 14.1 15.8 17.4 19.1 21.1 23.4 25.4 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 33.0 33.1 33.2 33.5 33.8 34.8 35.5 36.1 36.6 36.8 36.9 36.9 36.8 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 13 13 14 11 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 725 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 51 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -4. -9. -14. -18. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 13. 19. 24. 26. 24. 20. 15. 11. 6. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 14. 20. 25. 27. 24. 19. 14. 9. 4. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NINETEEN 10/01/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.85 SST (C) : Value: 28.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.70 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 120.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.85 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.51 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 67.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.60 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.36 Scaled RI index= 4.76 Prob of RI= 27.7% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)