* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/01/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 35 43 51 60 66 70 75 79 82 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 28 31 39 47 53 58 63 42 32 SHEAR (KTS) 8 11 9 6 8 6 3 6 6 11 5 4 7 SHEAR DIR 302 303 317 294 258 287 244 348 297 356 3 323 224 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.7 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 164 162 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -52.5 -52.4 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 12 12 8 11 8 11 9 14 10 14 500-300 MB RH 63 61 65 61 59 60 59 57 50 43 41 37 48 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 3 3 0 0 0 1 0 -2 0 -4 -2 0 850 MB VORT 51 54 49 55 60 54 48 35 39 22 46 39 76 LAND (KM) 292 209 125 36 -51 1 162 317 375 224 51 -122 -337 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.4 19.7 20.1 20.4 21.2 22.2 22.9 23.4 23.6 23.7 23.7 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 84.7 85.5 86.2 87.0 87.8 89.6 91.2 92.6 94.1 95.6 97.3 99.0 101.1 HEAT CONTENT 117 118 114 99 9999 40 52 52 54 57 70 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 588 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 34 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 13. 17. 22. 25. 29. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 29. 37. 44. 50. 55. 59. 63. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 15. 23. 31. 40. 46. 50. 55. 59. 62. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/01/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.85 SST (C) : Value: 29.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.87 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 144.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.84 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.06 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.62 Scaled RI index= 4.95 Prob of RI= 34.9% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)