* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * OTIS 10/01/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 78 78 76 69 61 51 45 38 26 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 77 78 78 76 69 54 38 36 29 27 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 3 3 4 8 10 12 16 20 18 21 31 38 37 SHEAR DIR 13 261 279 242 214 227 196 222 213 232 243 252 266 SST (C) 28.5 28.1 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.6 25.8 27.0 29.8 29.6 22.8 19.4 19.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 148 143 141 139 132 124 137 165 164 93 64 64 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.9 -51.1 -50.8 -50.5 -50.9 -50.9 -51.2 -51.4 -51.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 5 6 6 3 5 2 5 2 4 0 2 500-300 MB RH 47 44 41 40 38 33 29 21 17 13 13 15 28 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 2 1 0 1 3 5 3 6 4 10 5 5 850 MB VORT 19 17 18 27 36 43 29 48 47 60 43 -4 -20 LAND (KM) 205 193 185 157 129 32 -11 -39 38 -89 -239 -449 -640 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.1 22.6 23.1 23.5 24.9 26.8 28.0 28.9 30.4 33.0 34.7 35.8 LONG(DEG W) 111.3 111.7 112.0 112.1 112.2 112.6 113.3 113.2 112.5 112.0 111.8 110.8 109.0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 611 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 26 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -4. -6. -6. -6. -9. -15. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -6. -12. -20. -28. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -13. -14. -17. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 2. -4. -12. -22. -27. -34. -46. -63. -78. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 3. 1. -6. -14. -24. -30. -37. -49. -66. -80. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OTIS 10/01/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.76 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.31 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 69.5 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.32 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.09 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 90.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.86 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.60 Scaled RI index= 3.74 Prob of RI= 22.7% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.0%)