* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * NINETEEN 10/01/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 43 49 52 53 51 46 40 34 29 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 43 49 52 53 51 46 40 34 29 SHEAR (KTS) 8 6 3 9 9 15 20 22 31 37 46 47 47 SHEAR DIR 313 320 351 290 288 246 238 241 250 249 250 253 260 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.3 26.9 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 148 145 141 133 128 124 123 124 123 122 122 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.1 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -54.2 -53.9 -54.4 -54.7 -55.0 -55.5 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 500-300 MB RH 49 44 53 52 53 52 62 58 55 49 52 46 36 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -1 -2 -1 0 0 6 3 2 0 4 -3 0 850 MB VORT 33 44 65 78 60 51 32 10 -19 -40 -85 -82 -97 LAND (KM) 1731 1751 1771 1801 1833 1889 1959 2043 2065 2064 2021 2042 2116 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.4 13.8 15.3 16.9 18.7 20.8 22.8 24.7 26.2 27.4 LONG(DEG W) 33.4 33.6 33.8 34.2 34.5 35.1 35.7 36.4 36.9 37.0 36.5 36.5 37.0 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 14 13 12 8 6 6 6 4 4 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 712 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 40 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -4. -9. -13. -17. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 19. 22. 23. 21. 16. 10. 4. -1. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 13. 19. 22. 23. 21. 16. 10. 4. -1. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NINETEEN 10/01/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.89 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.65 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 116.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.81 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.52 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)