* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/01/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 43 51 60 68 75 80 85 89 91 V (KT) LAND 25 29 28 28 27 35 43 52 58 63 40 31 28 SHEAR (KTS) 10 6 3 10 7 1 3 5 7 5 7 5 12 SHEAR DIR 304 301 267 233 276 244 266 349 349 352 302 214 195 SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.8 30.2 30.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 164 164 164 164 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 12 12 10 10 10 11 11 12 13 13 10 500-300 MB RH 58 60 57 57 58 57 56 50 49 46 48 49 59 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 0 4 -2 850 MB VORT 63 59 53 58 59 53 47 37 55 51 76 71 69 LAND (KM) 170 76 -16 -113 -70 94 262 318 175 38 -165 -381 -122 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.6 21.4 22.0 22.3 22.5 22.4 22.3 22.2 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 85.8 86.7 87.5 88.4 89.3 91.1 92.6 94.2 95.8 97.5 99.5 101.6 104.3 HEAT CONTENT 117 109 81 9999 9999 41 57 58 61 80 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 621 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 34 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 21. 20. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 25. 35. 43. 50. 55. 60. 64. 67. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 13. 18. 26. 35. 43. 50. 55. 60. 64. 66. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/01/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.88 SST (C) : Value: 29.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.85 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 139.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.81 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.25 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.31 Scaled RI index= 4.99 Prob of RI= 36.3% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)