* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * OTIS 10/01/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 81 80 77 70 63 56 49 40 28 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 81 81 80 77 70 53 46 35 30 28 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 3 7 4 11 13 13 17 17 25 25 30 41 43 SHEAR DIR 283 284 260 224 229 218 204 204 231 243 247 253 259 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.3 26.8 27.7 29.1 30.1 29.1 24.4 19.9 18.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 145 142 140 135 144 158 165 158 110 64 64 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -52.0 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 5 5 4 5 3 4 1 0 0 500-300 MB RH 41 39 39 39 37 35 30 23 15 14 14 18 23 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 2 0 0 0 2 11 3 0 3 5 0 10 850 MB VORT 27 23 31 39 44 33 28 27 61 36 18 -48 -34 LAND (KM) 203 194 186 150 114 40 -36 26 -11 -92 -204 -410 -638 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.1 22.5 23.1 23.6 25.2 26.7 28.0 29.3 30.8 32.5 34.3 36.1 LONG(DEG W) 111.5 111.7 111.9 112.0 112.1 112.5 112.5 112.4 112.2 112.0 111.6 110.8 109.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 598 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 5 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 75 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -9. -16. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -10. -16. -24. -33. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. -2. -8. -15. -22. -28. -37. -50. -69. -86. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 0. -3. -10. -17. -24. -31. -40. -52. -71. -88. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OTIS 10/01/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.62 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.32 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 65.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.28 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.09 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 72.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.62 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.65 Scaled RI index= 3.37 Prob of RI= 16.0% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)