* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NINETEEN 10/01/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 41 41 40 36 32 28 25 21 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 41 41 40 36 32 28 25 21 SHEAR (KTS) 12 12 14 17 20 20 25 32 39 45 45 46 37 SHEAR DIR 289 288 288 278 267 248 256 246 254 251 258 256 268 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 137 134 132 128 124 123 123 123 123 122 121 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.4 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 -55.0 -55.3 -55.6 -56.3 -56.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 4 500-300 MB RH 40 50 53 47 50 57 57 56 56 52 52 43 34 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -2 -3 1 0 0 3 0 8 5 -8 6 -9 850 MB VORT 51 74 84 60 59 63 23 -6 -47 -61 -46 -61 -94 LAND (KM) 1747 1775 1805 1830 1857 1937 2064 2055 1992 2000 2076 2096 2095 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.2 15.7 16.8 18.7 20.8 22.8 24.5 25.9 27.4 29.0 LONG(DEG W) 33.7 34.0 34.3 34.6 34.8 35.5 36.6 36.8 36.3 36.3 36.9 36.8 36.3 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 3 4 3 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 708 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 49 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 7. 3. 0. -4. -7. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 11. 10. 6. 2. -2. -5. -9. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NINETEEN 10/01/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.68 SST (C) : Value: 27.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.54 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 106.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.73 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.40 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 62.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.54 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.42 Scaled RI index= 4.03 Prob of RI= 12.1% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)