* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/01/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 36 41 47 57 66 75 80 85 88 91 91 V (KT) LAND 25 30 31 29 28 37 47 56 61 66 46 33 29 SHEAR (KTS) 12 6 6 8 2 5 2 3 9 6 8 4 9 SHEAR DIR 300 306 254 280 307 218 7 354 15 8 21 149 176 SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.7 30.1 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 164 162 162 164 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.0 -52.8 -52.5 -53.1 -52.7 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 12 10 9 11 8 12 9 15 12 13 5 500-300 MB RH 64 62 63 65 59 60 57 54 49 50 50 57 64 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -3 -1 0 0 850 MB VORT 70 69 74 71 72 74 57 54 39 44 35 46 16 LAND (KM) 206 100 -4 -103 -52 93 260 351 226 71 -93 -299 -228 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.4 20.8 21.7 22.3 22.7 22.9 22.8 22.6 22.2 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 85.5 86.5 87.4 88.3 89.2 90.8 92.4 94.0 95.5 97.1 98.8 100.8 103.1 HEAT CONTENT 117 113 85 9999 9999 43 56 57 60 78 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 518 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 49 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 17. 21. 24. 28. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. 20. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 27. 37. 47. 54. 60. 63. 67. 67. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 11. 16. 22. 32. 41. 50. 55. 60. 63. 66. 66. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/01/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.89 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.84 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 138.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.80 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 79.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.75 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.54 Scaled RI index= 5.70 Prob of RI= 60.2% is 5.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)