* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * OTIS 10/01/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 87 87 84 80 71 60 52 43 35 22 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 87 87 84 80 71 53 38 35 25 26 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 5 4 6 14 13 15 14 16 24 28 34 37 35 SHEAR DIR 282 246 183 222 229 198 195 204 232 241 250 255 269 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.1 26.5 25.8 26.4 27.1 29.1 28.9 24.5 21.0 19.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 144 138 131 124 130 138 158 156 111 74 64 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -50.7 -50.9 -50.7 -50.7 -51.1 -51.4 -51.8 -52.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 5 4 6 4 4 1 2 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 42 39 37 36 35 33 24 17 11 12 12 19 17 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 0 -1 0 3 3 2 2 -1 2 1 1 14 850 MB VORT 33 38 36 43 38 32 38 51 62 41 -5 -28 -15 LAND (KM) 213 205 193 167 118 100 -14 -29 58 -20 -182 -298 -394 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.2 22.5 23.2 23.8 25.4 26.8 28.3 29.9 31.4 32.7 33.7 34.5 LONG(DEG W) 111.7 111.9 112.0 112.4 112.7 113.1 113.1 113.3 113.5 113.3 112.5 112.1 111.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 646 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 8 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 75 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -10. -13. -14. -14. -17. -23. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. -11. -18. -25. -32. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -18. -20. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 1. -2. -11. -20. -29. -38. -47. -61. -79. -94. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 2. -1. -5. -14. -25. -33. -42. -50. -63. -81. -96. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OTIS 10/01/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.94 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.56 SST (C) : Value: 27.5 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.23 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 56.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.19 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.08 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.49 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.64 Scaled RI index= 3.13 Prob of RI= 11.6% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.0%)