* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NINETEEN 10/01/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 34 35 33 31 29 25 23 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 34 35 33 31 29 25 23 19 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 13 19 22 22 23 31 27 35 37 43 45 48 38 SHEAR DIR 280 283 282 276 258 257 248 260 252 254 249 258 253 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 132 129 126 123 123 124 125 124 123 122 122 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.9 -54.3 -54.2 -53.8 -54.6 -54.6 -54.9 -55.3 -55.3 -55.6 -55.9 -56.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 8 6 4 500-300 MB RH 50 51 49 48 46 48 48 42 41 42 46 45 35 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 4 7 8 13 8 -11 7 -6 20 7 0 -1 850 MB VORT 68 76 56 53 44 22 -19 -31 -39 -56 -53 -82 -97 LAND (KM) 1774 1804 1835 1887 1943 2034 2085 2119 2138 2135 2134 2153 2193 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 15.1 15.7 16.6 17.4 19.2 21.0 22.5 23.7 25.0 26.4 28.1 30.2 LONG(DEG W) 34.0 34.3 34.6 35.1 35.5 36.4 37.1 37.5 37.7 37.6 37.4 37.2 36.9 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 4 4 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 338/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 659 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 58 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -16. -20. -24. -27. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -3. -6. -10. -13. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 3. 1. -1. -5. -7. -11. -15. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NINETEEN 10/01/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 19.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.57 SST (C) : Value: 27.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.48 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 102.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.69 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.41 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.13 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.47 Scaled RI index= 3.45 Prob of RI= 5.1% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)