* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TWENTY 10/01/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 42 48 55 64 73 81 86 92 94 96 96 V (KT) LAND 30 35 32 30 29 39 48 56 61 67 39 31 28 SHEAR (KTS) 7 6 4 2 2 4 4 9 8 11 4 7 9 SHEAR DIR 315 266 278 243 218 276 313 351 14 341 324 230 245 SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.8 30.1 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 164 164 164 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 9 10 9 10 10 12 12 13 10 6 500-300 MB RH 64 65 65 62 61 60 54 49 52 53 54 61 52 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 850 MB VORT 79 81 82 75 85 72 59 59 53 63 57 67 51 LAND (KM) 136 41 -52 -120 -46 159 351 266 163 10 -160 -308 -329 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.3 20.7 21.6 22.3 22.7 22.9 23.0 22.9 22.6 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 86.2 87.1 87.9 88.9 89.8 91.7 93.4 94.9 96.2 97.7 99.4 100.9 102.2 HEAT CONTENT 118 108 9999 9999 9999 51 59 59 66 74 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 526 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 47 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 22. 24. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 20. 20. 20. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 19. 29. 39. 48. 55. 61. 64. 67. 67. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 12. 18. 25. 34. 43. 51. 56. 62. 64. 66. 66. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TWENTY 10/01/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.96 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.84 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 134.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.98 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.79 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 90.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.88 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.66 Scaled RI index= 5.99 Prob of RI= 69.9% is 5.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)