* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * OTIS 10/01/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 70 65 61 57 49 42 36 29 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 70 65 61 57 49 36 34 28 27 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 4 5 8 12 9 15 20 28 34 40 42 39 33 SHEAR DIR 237 225 227 250 229 212 205 223 241 253 259 273 295 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.0 26.4 26.1 26.7 29.7 28.2 23.0 20.0 18.4 18.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 142 137 130 127 133 165 149 95 64 64 64 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.0 -51.4 -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -51.7 -51.8 -52.2 -52.7 -53.3 -53.7 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 5 5 5 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 37 36 33 34 31 28 23 16 12 12 15 25 24 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 1 0 3 0 3 2 3 9 -5 8 -35 850 MB VORT 40 40 42 33 41 23 29 62 59 41 -22 -33 -31 LAND (KM) 230 222 207 167 97 83 -64 39 -62 -226 -336 -521 -678 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.2 22.5 23.3 24.0 25.7 27.6 29.5 31.6 33.1 34.1 35.6 36.8 LONG(DEG W) 111.9 112.1 112.2 112.5 112.7 113.0 113.2 113.0 112.7 112.4 112.2 111.3 110.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 653 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 20 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 90 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -5. -5. -9. -16. -21. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -17. -27. -35. -42. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. -4. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -11. -14. -20. -27. -33. -42. -56. -75. -90.-103. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -10. -14. -18. -26. -33. -39. -46. -59. -77. -92.-105. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OTIS 10/01/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.16 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.64 SST (C) : Value: 27.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.19 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 65.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.28 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.04 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 49.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.31 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.50 Scaled RI index= 2.11 Prob of RI= 2.4% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)