* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NINETEEN 10/02/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 33 32 31 28 26 23 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 33 32 31 28 26 23 19 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 19 22 23 27 29 31 37 37 43 41 48 45 36 SHEAR DIR 285 287 278 270 264 263 253 262 252 253 250 260 270 SST (C) 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 135 132 129 126 124 122 123 124 123 122 121 120 119 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.7 -55.1 -55.4 -55.5 -55.6 -55.9 -56.1 -55.9 -56.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 8 7 5 4 500-300 MB RH 50 49 49 44 47 49 46 44 46 46 47 43 32 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 5 7 5 7 0 0 16 -4 10 0 11 0 850 MB VORT 64 46 40 36 34 -12 -21 -48 -54 -52 -62 -82 -93 LAND (KM) 1750 1793 1840 1893 1944 1989 2019 2035 2031 2024 2017 1972 1921 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.9 16.7 17.6 18.5 20.1 21.9 23.4 24.6 25.7 26.9 28.1 29.5 LONG(DEG W) 33.8 34.2 34.6 35.0 35.4 36.1 36.5 36.7 36.6 36.4 36.1 35.3 34.2 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 2 1 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 602 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 48 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. -27. -29. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -6. -9. -14. -18. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NINETEEN 10/02/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 24.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.46 SST (C) : Value: 27.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.44 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 99.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.66 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.46 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.40 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.33 Scaled RI index= 3.46 Prob of RI= 5.2% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)