* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TWENTY 10/02/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 42 48 53 63 73 80 86 90 93 95 95 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 28 27 41 50 57 63 50 34 29 27 SHEAR (KTS) 8 8 5 3 6 4 7 12 11 11 8 7 8 SHEAR DIR 277 275 293 273 249 352 6 7 343 6 46 10 51 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.9 30.1 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 164 164 164 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.0 -51.6 -52.2 -51.3 -52.1 -51.6 -52.3 -51.8 -52.7 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 9 9 10 11 7 11 9 12 10 12 9 8 500-300 MB RH 65 65 67 67 67 64 65 64 64 69 73 68 68 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -3 0 -2 -1 -1 -2 1 850 MB VORT 82 85 84 96 96 88 83 89 100 83 109 110 100 LAND (KM) 81 -11 -104 -112 -3 211 300 188 89 -53 -230 -248 -169 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.9 21.2 21.3 21.3 21.0 20.4 19.8 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 86.7 87.6 88.4 89.4 90.4 92.4 94.0 95.3 96.4 97.8 99.4 100.6 101.0 HEAT CONTENT 115 92 9999 9999 34 54 57 61 69 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 504 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 62 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 14. 18. 21. 24. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 16. 16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 19. 29. 39. 47. 54. 60. 63. 66. 67. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 12. 18. 23. 33. 43. 50. 56. 60. 63. 65. 65. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TWENTY 10/02/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.91 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.84 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 134.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.98 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.77 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 76.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.71 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.82 Scaled RI index= 5.92 Prob of RI= 67.5% is 5.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)