* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * OTIS 10/02/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 68 64 61 53 44 36 29 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 71 68 64 61 53 38 35 28 18 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 7 10 11 10 11 13 21 26 33 40 41 41 34 SHEAR DIR 218 224 231 225 200 214 207 228 228 245 252 273 277 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.3 26.8 26.3 26.1 25.9 28.1 29.5 29.6 28.0 23.0 19.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 140 135 129 127 125 148 163 164 147 95 64 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -51.0 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 6 6 6 4 5 2 3 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 34 30 31 30 31 23 22 12 9 8 11 13 12 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 2 2 -1 8 -4 850 MB VORT 45 40 34 42 43 22 45 64 64 42 6 -36 -14 LAND (KM) 212 197 176 133 75 55 -73 8 40 20 -79 -223 -388 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.5 22.9 23.6 24.3 26.0 27.6 28.9 29.9 30.9 32.0 33.2 34.6 LONG(DEG W) 111.9 112.1 112.2 112.5 112.8 113.0 113.4 113.3 113.3 113.2 113.4 112.8 112.2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 325/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 664 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 15 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 85 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -8. -8. -7. -8. -11. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -11. -19. -27. -36. -42. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -13. -20. -28. -36. -43. -53. -66. -81. -94. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -7. -11. -14. -22. -31. -39. -46. -56. -68. -82. -95. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OTIS 10/02/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.31 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.47 SST (C) : Value: 27.2 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.14 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 63.5 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.26 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.03 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 68.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.57 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.61 Scaled RI index= 2.39 Prob of RI= 2.8% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)